How the Air Pollution Forecasts are produced

Introduction

UK air pollution forecasts are prepared each day by a team of air quality experts from AEA.

A forecast of air pollution for the following 24 hours is prepared each afternoon, for inclusion in the 16:00 air pollution bulletin. A revised forecast is also issued before 11:00 the following morning if the situation has changed significantly or if HIGH (index >=7) air pollution is being measured or is expected.

If conditions are changing rapidly, a new or revised forecast may be issued at any time.

Air pollution forecasts are based on information from a number of sources. They are prepared with reference to all available information and on the basis of many years of 'hands on' experience of UK air pollution monitoring and forecasting. Ultimately it is the expert judgement of the duty forecaster which determines how the available data are combined to form the forecast issued to the public.